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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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