A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
